Advantage INDIA in close J&K contest: India Today-CVoter exit poll

Jammu and Kashmir, which went to polls after a decade and after being stripped of its special status, may see a hung Assembly, with the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance having the edge, as per India Today-CVoter exit poll prediction. Interestingly, Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and independents fielded by Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) are likely to play the role of a kingmaker if none of the parties get a majority.
The Congress-National Conference alliance is likely to bag anywhere between 40–48 seats of the 90 seats that went to polls, while the BJP, which campaigned on the ‘Naya Kashmir’ motto, may secure 27–32 seats. The India Today CVoter exit poll shows the PDP, which emerged as the single-largest party with 28 seats in 2014, is likely to take a major hit and see its tally down to 6–12 seats.
Independently, the National Conference is likely to emerge as the single-largest party, bagging 33 seats — doubling its tally from the 15 seats it won a decade ago. The BJP, with 29 seats, is likely to be the second-largest party.
In terms of vote share, the Congress-National Conference alliance is likely to corner 38.7 per cent of the votes.

The BJP, which had a 26.23% vote share in its best poll performance in J&K in 2014, is likely to see a dip and get 22.9 per cent of the votes.
The India Today-CVoter exit poll for Jammu and Kashmir is based on 20,013 interviews conducted in all 90 assembly constituencies. Note: Exit polls can get it wrong.
The entry of an unusually large number of independents this time has also muddied the poll scene, with the exit poll predicting 6–11 seats for them. The Lieutenant Governor’s power to nominate five members to the J&K Assembly will also have a bearing on the final outcome.
Speaking on the exit poll results, India Today’s Rajdeep Sardesai said despite the NC pulling the numbers in Kashmir, the Congress has likely failed to lift itself in Jammu. “It highlights the organisational weakness of the Congress. Jammu has suffered due to Article 370 withdrawal. The anger is there in Jammu, but Congress failed to capitalise,” he said.
The Union Territory, which recorded an enthusiastic overall turnout of nearly 64 per cent, saw polling in 90 seats — an increase of three seats from the 2014 polls following a delimitation exercise. The power of the Lieutenant Governor to nominate five MLAs expands the Assembly to 95 members and raises the majority threshold to 48 seats.
The new Assembly will have 43 MLAs from the Jammu region and 47 from the Kashmir division. As seen in previous Assembly polls, the trend of the BJP winning the most seats in Jammu and the regional parties cornering the lion’s share in the Valley is likely to continue.

The CVoter exit poll survey shows the INDIA bloc bagging 29–33 seats in Kashmir, with a vote share of 41 per cent. The PDP and independents are likely to secure anywhere between 6–10 seats each. The significant dip in the PDP’s vote share has likely helped in boosting the share of the independents but failed to transfer into seats.
The scenario, however, changes in the Jammu division, with the BJP likely to win 27–31 seats, bagging a vote share of 41.3 per cent. The Congress-NC alliance is likely to secure 11–15 seats, with a vote share of 36.4 per cent.

The Union Territory recorded an enthusiastic overall turnout of nearly 64 per cent (PTI)

The 2014 Assembly polls, which saw a four-way contest for 87 seats, threw up a hung Assembly. Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP emerged as the single-largest party with 28 seats and, despite ideological differences, formed the government in alliance with the BJP. The BJP, which achieved its best poll performance in J&K in 2014, bagged 25 seats.
The NC and the Congress, which were allies until the 2014 election, contested separately and won 15 and 12 seats respectively.
The verdict, which will be known on October 8, will reflect the popular mood of J&K after the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the erstwhile state into two union territories.
The BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has accused the regional J&K parties of pursuing a “Pakistani agenda” and fostering terrorism and campaigned with the promise of a ‘Naya Kashmir’. The BJP also highlighted the improved security situation in Kashmir, citing the enthusiastic turnout in the Lok Sabha polls.
The Congress has promised to restore statehood in Jammu and Kashmir, even though it has remained mum on its alliance partner’s promise of restoration of the special status. The INDIA bloc also criticised the BJP for an uptick in terror incidents in Jammu over the last three years.
Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Exit Poll / Post Poll personal interviews conducted on polling day and after polling day among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.